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ACUS11 KWNS 151831
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151830
FLZ000-GAZ000-152000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0269
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0130 PM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

Areas affected...coastal Georgia through northeast and central
Florida

Concerning...Tornado Watch 51...

Valid 151830Z - 152000Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 51 continues.

SUMMARY...Threat for primarily isolated damaging wind gusts and a
couple of tornadoes will persist across central through northeast FL
next couple of hours. Line of storms and a couple of discrete cells
are approaching the GA coast and will continue to pose a severe
threat before they move offshore by 20Z.

DISCUSSION...Lines of storms continues from coastal GA through
central FL. The overall tendency has been for the southern portion
of the line to weaken as it approaches the western FL coast.
However, some strengthening of the low-mid level winds have been
observed on the Tampa VAD wind profile and the downstream atmosphere
remains moderately unstable. Additional storms have developed east
of ongoing line along an inland convergence zone, and some storm
mergers are likely during the next hour or two which could enhance
downburst potential. Farther north an MCV moving through southeast
GA may be enhancing the the mesoscale environment there where a
couple of discrete cells have shown some increase in intensity.

..Dial.. 04/15/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...MLB...TBW...JAX...

LAT...LON 31828101 31068142 29538130 28868137 28148156 27318194
27318247 28788201 30088187 31908134 31828101



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ACUS11 KWNS 062149
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062148
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-062345-

Mesoscale Discussion 0269
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0448 PM CDT Sat Apr 06 2019

Areas affected...eastern Texas into northern Louisiana and southern
Arkansas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 38...

Valid 062148Z - 062345Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 38 continues.

SUMMARY...The tornado threat is likely to persist for at least a few
hours, mainly over eastern Texas into western Louisiana. As such, a
replacement watch is likely.

DISCUSSION...A line of storms with embedded supercells currently
extends from just east of Austin northeastward toward Shreveport.
Some of these cells have had a history of moderate rotation and
possibly tornadoes. Some of these cells currently appear to be
behind the leading outflow, but will still be capable of large,
damaging hail.

The air mass remains strongly unstable with steep lapse rates aloft
over much of southeast TX into LA. However, surface winds are mainly
light east of the convective line. Still, sufficient shear will
remain to support supercells and perhaps a couple tornadoes.
Damaging winds are possible as well.

Given that the upper trough continues to lift northeast, the tornado
threat may remain relegated to a narrow corridor near the leading
outflow. The greatest tornado threat will be with any portion of the
line that can remain more east-west oriented, or, where the outflow
boundary slows.

..Jewell/Grams.. 04/06/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

LAT...LON 31369607 31589574 31879514 32479423 33059345 33139271
33009225 32339199 31929198 31409231 31119314 30629413
30219531 30099664 30099702 30299702 30649669 31369607



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