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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0805

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, June 20, 2018 19:24:11
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 201924
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 201923
    PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-VAZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-202130-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0805
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0223 PM CDT Wed Jun 20 2018

    Areas affected...Portions of the Mid-Atlantic

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 201923Z - 202130Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms are developing along a the leading edge of an
    upper-level shortwave trough moving into the Mid-Atlantic. A few
    strong wind gusts are possible especially if the convection builds
    upscale into a QLCS later this afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...Some stronger storms have developed across western West
    Virginia per latest radar imagery. Storms will continue to develop
    and move east-southeast, south of a surface front stretching from
    central Ohio through northern/eastern Virginia. Latest satellite
    imagery shows numerous updrafts trying to develop across the region
    ahead of the storms in West Virginia, indicating the convective
    temperatures are being reached, most likely due to a combination of
    diabatic heating and terrain forcing. Moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE
    1000-1500 J/kg per latest mesoanalysis) should allow for a few
    stronger updrafts. However, weak flow aloft/shear should limit
    widespread organization.

    ..Nauslar/Dial.. 06/20/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...MRX...JKL...

    LAT...LON 38698201 39118155 39578093 39928044 40147976 40137943
    39957894 39537868 39127863 38827890 38317946 37458029
    36948138 37028224 37508280 38008288 38488230 38698201



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