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ACUS11 KWNS 201819
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201819
VAZ000-NCZ000-MDZ000-202015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0803
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0119 PM CDT Wed Jun 20 2018

Areas affected...Much of Virginia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 201819Z - 202015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Storms are developing across the Mid-Atlantic, including
much of Virginia, and should continue through the afternoon. Strong
wind gusts are the primary threat especially if the scattered
convection organizes upscale into a QLCS. Though a watch is
possible, a watch issuance will only be necessary if there is an
increase in overall convective intensity.

DISCUSSION...An upper-level shortwave is moving out of the Ohio
Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic per latest water vapor imagery.
Storms are developing along and south of a surface front draped
across central Ohio through northern/eastern Virginia. Moderate
buoyancy (1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE via latest mesoanalysis), ample
moisture (mean mixing ratio 15+ g/kg per RAP forecast soundings;
surface dewpoints in the 70s), and daytime heating will aid
convective initiation and possibly some upscale organization through
the afternoon. The most likely scenario for upscale organization
would result in loosely organized multicellular clusters that would
track east-southeast across the region. However, weak flow
aloft/shear and weak mid-level lapse rates will limit the potential
for a widespread severe wind threat although some isolated wet
microbursts are possible.

..Nauslar/Dial.. 06/20/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...

LAT...LON 37568010 38167948 38717888 38917845 38757777 38367706
38067633 37677581 37177576 36937578 36607579 36457665
36517785 36537905 36707977 37048017 37568010



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