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ACUS11 KWNS 151830
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151829
NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-152000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0268
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0129 PM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

Areas affected...portions of south-central VA...central NC into
north-central SC

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 151829Z - 152000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The severe threat will spread eastward into the NC/VA
Piedmont vicinity this afternoon and evening. A threat of damaging
wind and a few tornadoes will ensue as a line of convection across
western NC/VA continues to track east-northeast across the region. A
new tornado watch will be needed downstream of WW 52.

DISCUSSION...Strong heating beneath thin cirrus has allowed
temperatures to warm into the upper 70s to low 80s across the NC/VA
Piedmont vicinity this afternoon. This is a bit warmer than forecast
guidance previously has suggested, resulting in modestly improved
thermodynamic profiles. Regardless, surface based instability is
expected to top out around 1000-1500 J/kg at most across the region.
While midlevel lapse rates will remain lackluster, warmer boundary
layer temperatures should result in steeper surface to 3km lapse
rates. 18z Mesoanalysis indicates low level lapse rates have
increased to around 7 deg C/km. Furthermore, low level kinematics
should continue to improve as the surface low continues to push
east-northeast across the central Appalachians. On the whole, this
will maintain severe threat into the Piedmont vicinity as QLCS
across western VA/NC/SC continues northeastward. Strong deep layer
shear with fast storm motion and previously mentioned steepened low
level lapse rates will support damaging potential. Furthermore,
backed low level flow and 0-1km SRH greater than 200 m2/s2 will
support rotation in embedded supercell structures/mesovorticies
along the line.

More recently, showers have developed across the warm sector ahead
of the eastward advancing line. At this time these showers remain
rather shallow and weak. While some intensification is possible as
forcing for ascent increases, severe potential remains uncertain and
the main focus for severe threat remains the eastward advancing
line.

..Leitman/Guyer.. 04/15/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...

LAT...LON 34467898 34387943 34477985 34588021 34818034 35198045
35948045 36698050 37128045 37438033 37917979 38107950
38077905 37957874 37587839 37177831 36387826 34717853
34467898



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ACUS11 KWNS 062147
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062146
ALZ000-MSZ000-062345-

Mesoscale Discussion 0268
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0446 PM CDT Sat Apr 06 2019

Areas affected...Portions of central Mississippi and central Alabama

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 062146Z - 062345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts possible with heavier
downbursts located within an eastward propagating line. A WW
issuance seems unlikely at this time.

DISCUSSION...A relatively long-lived complex of multi-cellular
convection persists across central Mississippi. Currently, no
reports of measured severe winds or wind damage have been received,
though a 43 knot wind gust was observed at 2055Z by the John Bell
William Airport AWOS. While deep-layer/low-level shear and
deep-layer ascent remain weak across central Mississippi and
Alabama, the current line of storms is propagating along an axis of
relatively richer sfc-850 mb moisture, where up to 2500 J/kg MLCAPE
resides.

Current thinking is that the line of convection will continue to
propagate eastward, driven primarily by a deepening cold pool. The aforementioned weak shear will likely result in short-lived
individual updrafts embedded within the cluster, with new cells
constantly regenerating ahead of the leading edge of the cold
pool/outflow. A nearly saturated 925-850 mb layer, with PWAT values
exceeding 1.5 inches suggests that relatively intense wet downbursts
remain possible for at least the next few hours, until the onset of
nocturnal cooling. At least marginally severe wind gusts remain
possible with the stronger downbursts. Given the lack of stronger shear/deep-layer ascent to support a wider spread wind damage
threat, a WW issuance appears unlikely at this time.

..Squitieri/Grams.. 04/06/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...

LAT...LON 32779007 33028965 33218897 32948729 32628599 32348576
31778569 31468588 31318646 31498748 31938906 32119003
32209033 32609028 32779007



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