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ACUS11 KWNS 310759
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 310759
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-310900-

Mesoscale Discussion 0583
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0259 AM CDT Thu May 31 2018

Areas affected...northeast OK...southeast KS...southwest
MO...northwest AR

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 310759Z - 310900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to severe gusts (50-65 mph) are possible over the
next 1-2 hours over southeast KS and northeast OK. There is
uncertainty whether an additional severe thunderstorm watch is
needed farther east over southwest MO and extreme northwest AR.
Short-term observational trends will be monitored and will likely
dictate a go vs. no-go decision on a southwest MO/northwest AR
watch.

DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a strong to severe squall line over
southeast KS extending south-southwestward into the greater OKC
area. The airmass ahead of the squall line over northeast
OK/southeast KS is very moist with lower 70s degree F dewpoints.
Surface observations indicate slightly less rich moisture generally
east of a north-south line east of Springfield. Nonetheless, the
00Z SGF RAOB showed a moderately buoyant airmass (2400 J/kg MLCAPE)
which has only gradually lessened since earlier this evening. With
a well-developed MCV now evident in radar imagery and a pronounced
pressure rise in the trailing stratiform region (5-6 mb pressure
rise in 2 hours at Ponca City, OK), it seems very likely the squall
line will persist longer and farther east than recent runs of the
HRRR indicated. Yet, recent measured gusts on the OK Mesonet have
only observed gusts ranging between 40-50 mph. As such, will
monitor surface observation trends over the next 30-60 minutes to
help decide whether an additional severe thunderstorm watch is
warranted farther east.

..Smith/Edwards.. 05/31/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON 35669651 37929586 38169395 37589306 36599292 35729319
35309398 35289598 35669651



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