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ACUS11 KWNS 310341
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 310340
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-310545-

Mesoscale Discussion 0581
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1040 PM CDT Wed May 30 2018

Areas affected...Eastern Texas Panhandle...Eastern Oklahoma Panhandle...Northern Oklahoma...Southern Kansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 135...

Valid 310340Z - 310545Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 135
continues.

SUMMARY...A severe threat will likely continue late this evening
into the overnight period across northern Oklahoma and southern
Kansas. Large hail and wind damage will be possible as a line of
storms moves eastward across WW 135. Additional counties may need to
be added to the watch across parts of western and central Oklahoma.

DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a 999 mb low across
northwest Texas with the moist sector wrapping around the low on the
east side. Surface dewpoints increase with eastward extent reaching
the mid 70s F across the central and eastern part of WW 135. In
response, MLCAPE values are in the 2500 to 4000 J/kg range according
to the RAP across the watch. This will help to sustain a linear MCS
as it moves across northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas late this
evening into the overnight period. The Vance, OK WSR-88D VWP shows
moderate deep-layer shear and forecast soundings have steep
mid-level lapse rates of 7.5 to 8.0 C/km. This will be favorable for
large hail with the stronger cores of the linear MCS. Also, an
eastward movement of the MCS in the 40 to 50 kt range will also be
favorable for wind damage along the leading edge.

Given the recent development near the Texas and Oklahoma state line,
Roger Mills and Custer counties may need to be added to the watch.
Canadian and Oklahoma counties may eventually need to be added
depending upon how much development occurs along the southern flank
of the MCS.

..Broyles/Thompson.. 05/31/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

LAT...LON 37000036 36190049 35730017 35609968 35759741 35939605
37279586 37869637 37879709 37659804 37349875 37289955
37000036



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