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ACUS11 KWNS 250226
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250225
KSZ000-250400-

Mesoscale Discussion 0515
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0925 PM CDT Thu May 24 2018

Areas affected...Central KS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 250225Z - 250400Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong wind gusts and hail are possible for the
next few hours across central KS. Marginal nature of the threat will
preclude the need for a watch.

DISCUSSION...Well-defined outflow moving quickly eastward from the
decaying convective cluster across northwest KS recently initiated
new thunderstorms across central KS. As evidenced by 00Z DDC and LBF
soundings, steep mid-level lapse rates persist across the region
will likely support continued thunderstorm development into central
KS. Given the onset of low-level nocturnal stabilization, the
expectation is for most of this activity to remain slightly elevated
as it continues to forward propagate across central KS for the next
few hours. A few of the stronger wind gusts produced by this
convection could reach the surface. Some isolated hail is also
possible.

..Mosier/Grams.. 05/25/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON 39739840 38809815 37849872 37180022 37650096 38150049
38520030 39290026 39829964 39739840



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ACUS11 KWNS 031720
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031720
TXZ000-031945-

Mesoscale Discussion 0515
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 PM CDT Fri May 03 2019

Areas affected...Southeast Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 031720Z - 031945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A marginal hail threat and brief tornado will be possible
across the Houston area over the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a very moist airmass
in place across southeast Texas with dewpoints in the lower 70s F. A
small cluster of thunderstorms is located just to the west of the
Houston area, associated with an MCV evident on water vapor imagery.
Surface winds ahead of the MCV are backed to the southeast which is
enhancing low-level shear. The Houston WSR-88D VWP shows veering
winds with height in the lowest 3 km AGL with 0-3 km storm relative
helicity near 220 m2/s2. For this reason, the stronger cells with
the MCV will rotate and could produce a brief tornado. Also, hail
will be possible with the stronger updrafts.

..Broyles/Guyer.. 05/03/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...

LAT...LON 30189581 29879629 29629633 29409600 29219518 29449487
29849476 30149493 30189581



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