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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0508

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, May 24, 2018 18:03:37
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    ACUS11 KWNS 241803
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 241802
    WIZ000-MNZ000-242030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0508
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0102 PM CDT Thu May 24 2018

    Areas affected...much of northern Minnesota

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 241802Z - 242030Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms are expected to increase in coverage over the next
    several hours, with marginally severe hail possible in the strongest
    storms.

    DISCUSSION...Visible imagery shows an outflow boundary/warm front
    extending from north-central MN across northern WI. While surface
    obs show a cool/stable air mass east of this front, extensive CU is
    developing over much of MN into central WI, indicative of a more
    unstable air mass. Further, isolated cells were beginning to develop
    over north-central MN as of 18Z.

    Persistent south to southwest low-level flow will allow for warm
    advection to occur into much of northeastern MN into northern WI, as
    well as western Upper Michigan. The approaching shortwave trough may
    also provide some additional large-scale support for storm formation
    this afternoon.

    Wind profiles are not strong, but do veer with height. As heating
    persists, a few cells approaching and/or forming near the retreating
    boundary may briefly become severe with hail the primary risk.

    ..Jewell/Hart.. 05/24/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...

    LAT...LON 46999433 49009529 49489522 49359481 48909443 48709343
    47709269 46849199 46709147 46289118 45879112 45569186
    46309342 46999433



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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, May 03, 2019 00:02:07
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 030002
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 030001
    KYZ000-INZ000-030100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0508
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0701 PM CDT Thu May 02 2019

    Areas affected...Portions of western Kentucky

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 030001Z - 030100Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Several storms in western Kentucky may pose an isolated
    hail/wind threat through the evening, but a more widespread threat
    is not anticipated. Therefore, no watch is expected.

    DISCUSSION...Several splitting supercells have developed north of a
    stationary front in west central Kentucky with clear deviant motion
    both left and right of the mean wind. The HPX VWP shows a mostly
    straight hodograph above 1 km which may support continued storm
    splits. Most of these storms have remained sub-severe thus far, but
    one left mover with clear anticyclonic rotation in southern Ohio
    county has recently shown a MESH core near 1.5 inches. Any hail/wind
    threat with these storms is expected to be short-lived due to
    destructive interference between right and left movers and low-level stabilization as the boundary layer cools amid weak buoyancy.

    ..Bentley.. 05/03/2019

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LMK...PAH...

    LAT...LON 37278795 37828745 37908657 37688570 37158570 36858627
    36668693 36758776 37278795



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