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ACUS11 KWNS 151618
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151618
FLZ000-151715-

Mesoscale Discussion 0267
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1118 AM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

Areas affected...west central Florida

Concerning...Tornado Watch 51...

Valid 151618Z - 151715Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 51 continues.

SUMMARY...Storms will likely move onshore near the Tampa area around
17Z and may pose a risk for mainly strong to damaging wind, but a
brief tornado cannot be ruled out. This area is south of tornado
watch 51, but the existing WW can be locally extended a few counties
south as needed, or a separate severe thunderstorm watch could be
issued. Plans are also to expand the slight risk farther south
through remainder of the Tampa forecast area with the 1630Z update.

DISCUSSION...Line of storms with broad bow echo configuration
located off the west central FL coast is moving east around 30 kt
and will reach the coast near Tampa around 17Z. The atmosphere
inland is moist with upper 70s surface dewpoints and temperatures
rising through the 80s supporting MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg. Some
increase in low-mid level winds is expected next hour or two. The
overall environment with strong low-level and deep shear, moderate
instability and influence of MCV located near northern end of the
bowing segment appear supportive of a organized structures with a
threat for damaging wind as the line moves inland.

..Dial.. 04/15/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TBW...

LAT...LON 28388206 28008165 27388173 27258240 28148278 28388206



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ACUS11 KWNS 062031
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062030
KSZ000-062300-

Mesoscale Discussion 0267
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0330 PM CDT Sat Apr 06 2019

Areas affected...Portions of central/eastern KS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 062030Z - 062300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Marginally severe hail may occur this afternoon into the
early evening. Watch issuance is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have developed this afternoon ahead of a
shortwave trough across parts of central KS. Cloud cover has
generally been more prevalent across this area compared to locations
farther south, and instability should generally remain weak through
the evening. Although low to mid-level winds are more southerly per
KICT and KTOP VWPs, some speed shear is present in RAP forecast
soundings across parts of central/eastern KS. Related 30-35 kt of
effective bulk shear may be enough to support occasional updraft
organization, and marginally severe hail could occur as mid-level
lapse rates modestly steepen with the approach of the shortwave
trough. The overall severe threat will likely remain too isolated
and marginal to warrant watch issuance.

..Gleason/Hart.. 04/06/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON 37029806 37409834 38429838 39239783 39369645 39019546
38039502 37479518 37069561 37029806



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