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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0448

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, May 18, 2018 01:12:07
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    ACUS11 KWNS 180112
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 180111
    SDZ000-NEZ000-180215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0448
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0811 PM CDT Thu May 17 2018

    Areas affected...western and central south dakota

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 100...102...

    Valid 180111Z - 180215Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 100, 102
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Local spatial extensions may be needed for WWs 100 and 102
    as storms migrate east/southeast across the discussion area.

    DISCUSSION...Recent radar mosaic imagery indicates a couple of forward-propagating linear thunderstorm segments across western and
    central South Dakota currently. Just ahead of these storms, a
    moderately unstable airmass is in place, with MUCAPE greater than
    2000 J/kg. One of the linear thunderstorm segments is propagating
    eastward toward the eastern edge of WW 100, while a second linear
    segment is propagating southeastward toward the southern extent of
    WW 102. Damaging wind gusts and hail remain possible with these
    linear segments and additional storms across the WW areas. These
    recent convective trends may necessitate local extensions of each
    watch - or perhaps a new, small severe thunderstorm watch across
    south-central South Dakota.

    ..Cook/Hart.. 05/18/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...

    LAT...LON 44600264 45130200 45550114 45680019 45529934 45229877
    44769875 44299898 43819940 43489953 43139980 42960073
    43030210 43040298 43050348 43200363 43590338 44600264



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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, April 26, 2019 01:29:17
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 260129
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 260129
    OHZ000-INZ000-260200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0448
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0829 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2019

    Areas affected...east-central IN...west-central OH

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 260129Z - 260200Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...A zone of ambient low-level vorticity co-located with a
    wind profile showing an enlarged hodograph may continue to pose a
    severe risk. A few supercells will be capable of isolated damaging
    gusts and perhaps a weak/brief tornado or two during the next 30-60
    minutes.

    DISCUSSION...Radar imagery shows a couple of mini supercells near
    the IN/OH border on the north-end of a broken squall line over the
    Miami Valley in southwest OH. Despite relatively cool surface
    conditions (low-mid 60s temperatures), a saturated profile in the
    low levels is contributing to 250 J/kg MLCAPE. The 00z ILN raob
    showed some enlargement in the hodograph (200 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH).
    Expecting the low-level mesocyclone potential and associated hazards
    to gradually become more confined both temporally and spatially
    during the next hour. Until then, a localized damaging wind and
    tornado risk may accompany the strongest circulations.

    ..Smith/Grams.. 04/26/2019

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...IND...

    LAT...LON 39748535 40188525 40538441 40028467 39748535



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