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ACUS11 KWNS 180048
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180047
NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-180145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0447
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0747 PM CDT Thu May 17 2018

Areas affected...Western Nebraska

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 103...

Valid 180047Z - 180145Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 103
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across WW 103.

DISCUSSION...Storms continue to migrate slowly northeastward across
the WW area currently. These storms have also congealed into a
couple of forward-propagating clusters, and an additional linear
cluster of storms in southwestern South Dakota was building
southward into northern portions of WW 103. Deep shear is modest
(35 knots), although gradually increasing low-level flow, continued
linear organization of ongoing storms, and moderate buoyancy/steep
lapse rates will continue to foster a damaging wind threat
especially with any bowing segments. A few instances of large hail
also remain possible.

..Cook.. 05/18/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON 43280394 43650358 43870268 43830203 43510167 42720142
41640139 40610153 40350231 40490365 40800411 41820411
43280394



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ACUS11 KWNS 252222
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252221
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-252345-

Mesoscale Discussion 0447
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0521 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2019

Areas affected...centrala and eastern FL Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 252221Z - 252345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms potentially capable of damaging gusts and
perhaps a weak tornado or two are possible this evening across the
FL Panhandle. A new tornado watch will likely be needed by 730pm
EDT.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery over the central Gulf Coast shows a quasi
linear bowing segment with several small-scale circulations moving
east in the near-shore waters south of Mobile Bay. The squall line
will move east this evening across the northeast Gulf Coast as
moisture advection/destabilization occurs ahead of the line.
Surface analysis indicates dewpoints ranging from the upper 60s at
the immediate coast near Tyndall AFB to the low-middle 60s near the
GA/AL/FL border. Given the quality of moisture being highest near
the coast, the severe and conditional tornado risk are likely going
to focus near the coast this evening. Forecast soundings show a
slight strengthening in the low-level wind profile during the next
few hours which would be more supportive for low-level rotation.

Farther north over southeast AL, weak/transient circulations have
been observed via single site 88D imagery during the past 30-45
minutes. Although there is some risk for a strong/locally severe
storm with activity on the northern edge of greater buoyancy, the
current expectation is the drier boundary layer/weaker buoyancy will
tend to limit the overall risk across southeast AL into southwest GA
this evening.

..Smith/Grams.. 04/25/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...

LAT...LON 31258663 31408630 31098504 30408407 30058402 29528482
29978641 31258663



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