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ACUS11 KWNS 172344
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172344
OKZ000-TXZ000-180045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0446
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0644 PM CDT Thu May 17 2018

Areas affected...western OK...western north-central TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 172344Z - 180045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated and short duration severe risk may develop
east of severe thunderstorm watch 101. The potential for severe
gusts and large hail will probably focus west of the US 283
corridor.

DISCUSSION...Several clusters of severe thunderstorms this evening
are gradually moving east through portions of the TX Panhandle and
the Low Rolling Plains east of the Caprock. Despite the strong
deep-layer shear observed on the KAMA and KLBB VADs (45-60 kt 0-6 km
shear) coupled with steep low- to mid-level lapse rates, the
combination of diurnal cooling this evening and the lack of a strong
low-level jet stream over the southern Great Plains, suggests the
eastern bound of severe will likely not move much into western OK
and western north-central TX. Although a localized severe gust or
large hail threat may develop, the duration and overall severity
will likely preclude the need for an additional severe thunderstorm
watch to the east of WW 101.

..Smith/Hart.. 05/17/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...

LAT...LON 32949993 36129995 36159909 32989920 32949993



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ACUS11 KWNS 252015
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252014
ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-252215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0446
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0314 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2019

Areas affected...southeast Louisiana...coastal
Mississippi...Alabama...and the western Florida Panhandle

Concerning...Tornado Watch 103...

Valid 252014Z - 252215Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 103 continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat area continues to diminish in size, with
the most likely area of a damaging gust or brief tornado along
coastal counties.

DISCUSSION...A line of thunderstorms continues to move quickly east
across southern AL, associated with outflow from earlier storms over
MS. The same general outflow boundary now extends southwestward into
LA, merging with ongoing frontal convection. While the northern
activity is likely to encounter drier and more stable air to the
east, areas near the Gulf Coast will maintain 68-70 F dewpoints and
sufficient instability for more substantial convection. However,
outflow will continue to erode the air mass over land, with any wind
or brief tornado threat most likely where winds have not shifted and
air mass cooled. Area VWPs continue to indicate generally favorable
hodograph structure with 50 kt midlevel flow and veering low-level
winds with height (effective SRH around above 200 m2/s2).

..Jewell.. 04/25/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...LIX...

LAT...LON 29169062 29469030 29648988 29978947 30298930 30608854
31378675 31268625 30898606 30378622 30248642 30208745
30118827 29908864 29498882 29128889 28928908 28858994
29009051 29169062



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