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ACUS11 KWNS 172255
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172254
SDZ000-NDZ000-NEZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-180000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0445
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0554 PM CDT Thu May 17 2018

Areas affected...western through northeastern South
Dakota...southern North Dakota...southeastern Montana...and
northeastern Wyoming

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 100...102...

Valid 172254Z - 180000Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 100, 102
continues.

SUMMARY...A couple of convective clusters continue to
forward-propagate across WW 100 and 102 while posing a hail and
damaging wind threat.

DISCUSSION...Storms have largely congealed into a couple of
extensive linear complexes - one located near the ND/SD border that
was propagating very slowly southward and another from northwestern
SD to near/southwest of Rapid City, SD. These storms were mainly outflow-dominant, and this trend should continue through the next
several hours given marginal shear profiles and mature cold pools
that were becoming increasingly separated from thunderstorm cores.
Large hail and damaging wind gusts will remain the primary threats
with this activity.

Additional convection continued to propagate eastward across eastern
portions of WW 102. This convection is mostly subsevere, however,
given weaker buoyancy and marginal vertical shear profiles. A
thunderstorm may become briefly severe east of the WW, although any
appreciable severe threat should remain located farther west.

..Cook.. 05/17/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ...

LAT...LON 46090495 46200396 46350206 46500052 46399881 46119791
45669752 45029764 44749883 44629970 44050065 43420125
42950222 42860383 42830476 43300517 44500535 46090495



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ACUS11 KWNS 251942
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251942
KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-252145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0445
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0242 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2019

Areas affected...Portions of far southeast Missouri...southern Illinois...southwest Indiana...northern into central Kentucky

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 251942Z - 252145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Discrete convection, with the potential to exhibit
occasional low-level rotation, will continue to develop over the
next few hours. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out with the more
long-lived, intense updrafts. The sparse nature of the severe threat
precludes a WW issuance at this time.

DISCUSSION...A 1004 mb surface low, located across southeast
Missouri, is gradually translating northeast in tandem with a
mid-level shortwave trough. Mid-level CVA immediately east of the
surface low, along with modest surface heating, has contributed to
convective development over the last few hours, particularly within
close proximity of a surface warm front.

Along/immediately south of the aforementioned front, the lowest
300-mb of the atmosphere may be characterized by modest low-level
lapse rates of 6.5-7.0 C/km, that combined with relatively deep
low-level moisture, is fostering 0-3km CAPE values within the
150-200 J/kg range. In addition, higher values of surface vertically
oriented vorticity and low-level convergence have been noted within
relatively close proximity of the surface low, along the warm front,
and in association with smaller scale baroclinic zones generated
along the edges of differential surface heating (via insolation).
Given the higher values of low-level CAPE, strong updraft
accelerations within 1-3 km AGL are possible with individual cells
that have the chance to organize, with the propensity to stretch the
ambient vertical vorticity along any of the aforementioned
boundaries. As such, a few of the strongest storms may acquire
low-level rotation, and a brief tornado cannot be ruled out.

Given the isolated nature of the severe threat, a WW issuance is not
expected at this time.

..Squitieri.. 04/25/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...

LAT...LON 37248552 36888735 36798849 37128975 37378986 38178892
38578791 38508682 38488603 38168534 37588514 37248552



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