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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0444

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, May 17, 2018 22:20:05
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    ACUS11 KWNS 172220
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 172219
    NEZ000-COZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-180015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0444
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0519 PM CDT Thu May 17 2018

    Areas affected...Western Nebraska...southeastern Wyoming...and northeastern/north-central Colorado

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

    Valid 172219Z - 180015Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...High-based convection will continue to mature across
    western portions of the discussion area while moving northeastward.
    Hail and severe wind gusts are likely with the stronger cells and/or
    linear segments. A WW issuance may be needed during the next couple
    of hours pending convective trends.

    DISCUSSION...Latest GOES-16, lightning, and radar imagery indicate
    areas of increasing, high-based thunderstorm activity over the past
    hour or so. These storms were in a warm, dry near-surface
    environment, with nearly 50F dewpoint depressions and steep lapse
    rates through the low and mid-levels. Storms should gradually
    migrate eastward into areas of better low-level moisture
    (characterized by 50s dewpoints) and moderate to strong instability
    (MUCAPE around 3000 J/kg). With time, storms should mature into outflow-dominant cells and forward-propagating linear segments -
    especially as they reach the better low-level moisture profiles
    located downstream into the Nebraska Panhandle. Hail and damaging
    wind gusts are expected with this activity - especially if storms
    can manage to grow upscale into one or more clusters as suggested by high-resolution model guidance. Convective trends will be
    monitored, and a severe thunderstorm watch may be needed over the
    next couple of hours or so.

    ..Cook/Hart.. 05/17/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...

    LAT...LON 42510479 42790466 43000359 43020240 42960174 42310127
    40910122 40110182 39590314 39570427 39900474 41000482
    41410482 42510479



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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, April 25, 2019 16:49:12
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 251649
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 251648
    ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-251845-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0444
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1148 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2019

    Areas affected...southeast Louisiana into southern Mississippi and
    southwest Alabama

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 102...

    Valid 251648Z - 251845Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 102 continues.

    SUMMARY...The threat for locally damaging winds and brief tornadoes
    continues within the watch area, and may increase this afternoon.
    Severe storms may eventually spread into southwestern Alabama, and
    this area will be monitored for watch potential.

    DISCUSSION...Outflow from a dying MCS currently extends from western
    AL into southern MS, merging with the primary cold front into
    south-central LA. Ahead of these boundaries, storms associated with
    warm advection have periodically shown signs of being severe as they
    moved across the New Orleans area, now over coastal MS. Sufficient
    instability is in place over southwest AL and the western FL
    Panhandle to support a severe storm or two, should they maintain
    intensity.

    To the west, vigorous storms were ongoing along the cold front
    extending from central-southern LA across the northern Gulf of
    Mexico. Some air mass recover is expected over southeast LA ahead of
    the frontal convection, and shear profiles will remain favorable for
    supercells capable of damaging wind or tornadoes with 0-1 SRH
    averaging 150-200 m2/s2.

    ..Jewell.. 04/25/2019

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

    LAT...LON 29449200 29679193 30219164 30759138 31159114 31968923
    32228865 32318800 32138740 31808702 31348683 30688686
    30228723 30158785 30148837 29818875 29348884 28988911
    28958948 29009015 28989101 29199135 29389172 29449200



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