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ACUS11 KWNS 172139
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172139
TXZ000-NMZ000-172245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0443
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0439 PM CDT Thu May 17 2018

Areas affected...Permian Basin

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 172139Z - 172245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and severe gusts are possible through
the evening. A severe thunderstorm watch may need to be considered
shortly if it will be issued.

DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows strong to severe thunderstorms in a
north-south broken band in the vicinity of the dryline over the
Permian Basin and extending southward into the TX Big Bend.
Temperatures range through the 90s degrees F and dewpoints are near
50 F. As a result, large temperature/dewpoint spreads and a
deep/very well mixed boundary layer will promote the development of
strong to severe gusts near the stronger cores. 0-6 km shear 30-40
kt will favor organized storm structures, including supercells
capable of large hail. The 8.9 degree C per km 700-500 mb lapse
rate on this morning's sounding from MAF will favor storm longevity
through the early evening. Given the storm coverage expected and
the storm organizational potential, a severe thunderstorm watch may
need to be considered shortly.

..Smith/Hart.. 05/17/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON 30290275 31720360 32920303 32940102 30600112 30250204
30290275



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ACUS11 KWNS 251211
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251210
MSZ000-LAZ000-251415-

Mesoscale Discussion 0443
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0710 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2019

Areas affected...South-Central/Southeast LA...Southern MS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 251210Z - 251415Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Ongoing convective line could pose a downstream severe
threat and convective trends will be monitored closely for potential
watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...A line of thunderstorms currently extending from
central MS southwestward into southwest LA. Most organized portion
of this line appears to be over east-central LA where some quicker
forward motion has been noted recently. Farther south (i.e. across
southwest LA), some upscale growth has been noted although a forward
surge indicative more linear organization has not been observed. The precipitation shield moving onshore in south-central LA cast some
doubt toward whether or not the areas downstream of the ongoing line
can sufficiently destabilize. This precipitation shield also looks
to prevent more cellular development within the open warm sector.

Even so, the potential for more organization still exists with a
resulting threat for wind damage and a tornado or two downstream
across south-central/southeast LA and adjacent portions of southern
MS. Convective trends across the region will be monitored closely
for potential watch issuance.

..Mosier/Guyer.. 04/25/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON 30089281 31089176 31529045 31588931 31428872 31138847
30538853 29828891 29308953 29119079 29339208 29529275
30089281



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