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ACUS11 KWNS 172048
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172047
SDZ000-NDZ000-172115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0442
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0347 PM CDT Thu May 17 2018

Areas affected...Portions of north-central South Dakota and extreme south-central North Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch needed soon

Valid 172047Z - 172115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will be needed soon over the
area.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms will become more numerous in the next
hour along an outflow boundary and on the southern periphery of the
stronger mid-level flow/shear. Indications are that thunderstorms
will consolidate rapidly and move southeast, posing an initial
threat of severe hail, as with the storm northwest of Aberdeen, to
primarily a severe wind threat as a small MCS moves south and east.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will be forthcoming.

..Coniglio/Weiss.. 05/17/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...BIS...

LAT...LON 45690107 46210071 46389981 46379883 46229827 45379813
44259812 44239903 44339976 44390026 44800109 45690107



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ACUS11 KWNS 251024
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251024
LAZ000-TXZ000-251130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0442
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0524 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2019

Areas affected...Central/Southern LA...Far Southeast TX

Concerning...Tornado Watch 100...

Valid 251024Z - 251130Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 100 continues.

SUMMARY...Threat for damaging wind gusts and a tornado or two
continues across far southeast TX and central/southern LA. This
threat will likely extend past 11Z and a local watch extension may
be needed.

DISCUSSION...Multicellular storms along and just ahead of an
eastward moving cold front have gradually intensified over the past
hour with several now exhibiting supercellular characteristics. 06Z
LCH sounding sampled a very moist and moderately unstable airmass
amidst strong deep-layer shear. Wind speeds aloft have increased
since that time, with the KPOE VAD wind profile now showing winds
over 60 kt at 5kft. This favorable environment will likely lead to
the persistence of the ongoing storms, with at least some potential
for the development into another convective line like the one
farther north in central MS (discussed in MCD 441). Given that the
threat will likely extend pass the watch expiration time of 11Z, a
local extension in time and perhaps area may be required.

..Mosier.. 04/25/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON 31129423 32009353 32289260 31889204 30289231 30079414
31129423



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