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ACUS11 KWNS 171858
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171858
SDZ000-NEZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-172030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0440
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0158 PM CDT Thu May 17 2018

Areas affected...Far eastern Wyoming...Nebraska Panhandle...western
South Dakota...far southwest North Dakota...and far southeast
Montana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 171858Z - 172030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase in the next few hours posing a
risk for severe wind gusts and severe hail. A Severe Thunderstorm
Watch is likely.

DISCUSSION...Strong heating over the area is contributing to
thunderstorm development over the Laramie Range, along/north of the
western portion of a decaying outflow boundary, and over the Black
Hills. Thunderstorms are expected to be most numerous over the
northern portion of the area in the next hour or so, then
develop/overspread a little later over the southern portion of the
area as thunderstorms move off the Mountains, and potentially
develop along the lee trough. The air mass north of the old outflow
boundary has been somewhat slow to destabilize, but MLCAPE is now
analyzed from 500 J/kg near the North Dakota/South Dakota border to
over 2000 J/kg over central South Dakota, with rapidly decreasing
MLCIN with time. Near-surface winds have maintained somewhat of an
easterly component north of the outflow boundary, which is
contributing to 35-40 kt of 0-6 kt shear over that area. The
abundance of thunderstorms developing on recent GOES-16 imagery,
steep mid-level lapse rates, and deeply-mixed boundary layers should
contribute to strong cold pool development and upscale growth into
mixed multicell/supercell clusters through the afternoon. Severe
wind gusts and severe hail will be the primary threats.

Over the southern area, strong heating and boundary-layer dewpoints
holding in the mid-to-upper 50s is contributing to higher MLCAPEs of
2500-3000 J/kg. However, given the rather weak deep-layer shear,
thunderstorms are also expected to consist of multicell/supercell
modes initially, with a consolidated area of thunderstorms growing
upscale with time in the form of a loosely-organized MCS.

Given the expected coverage of thunderstorms, widespread steep lapse
rates, and sufficient moisture, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is
likely, perhaps requiring issuance over the northern area first,
followed by a second Watch over the southern part of the area.

..Coniglio/Weiss.. 05/17/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ...

LAT...LON 43900489 45300482 46210414 46580312 46410185 46180130
45690107 44780096 43900111 42820138 42620143 41760168
41230198 41090254 41080384 41090456 41270505 42740491
43900489



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ACUS11 KWNS 250709
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250708
LAZ000-MSZ000-TXZ000-250815-

Mesoscale Discussion 0440
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0208 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2019

Areas affected...Far East-Central TX...Northern/Central LA

Concerning...Tornado Watch 100...

Valid 250708Z - 250815Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 100 continues.

SUMMARY...Threat for damaging wind gusts and a tornado or two
persists across far east-central TX and northern/central LA.
Convective trends will be monitored closely for downstream watch
issuance before 08Z.

DISCUSSION...Northern portion of the convective line has recently
surged forward as it interacts with a supercell that was previously
ahead of the line. This well-developed supercell has produced
several TDSs amidst a cycling low-level mesocyclone. Even with the
convective line overtaking this storm, tornadoes remain possible as
does a relatively higher threat for damaging wind gusts. Storm
motion estimate of 230 degrees at 40 kt takes this storm to the edge
of the watch around 0730Z. A less favorable thermodynamic
environment exists across far southern AR so severe storm
persistence into that region is uncertain. Convective trends will be
monitored closely.

Farther south, the line of storms has been less progressive thus
far. However, recent development ahead of the line and strengthening
mid-level flow approaching from southeast TX may promote faster
storm motion over the next few hours. Current storm motion takes
this portion of the line to the edge of the watch by 08Z.

Overall thermodynamic environment is less favorable downstream but
the well-organized nature of the convective line may be able to
compensate for this, resulting in a downstream threat for damaging
wind gusts and isolated tornadoes. Convective trends will be
monitored closely for possible downstream watch issuance.

..Mosier/Guyer.. 04/25/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON 32569430 32989316 32859193 31879161 31129152 30429162
30119236 30189396 30649440 32569430



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