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ACUS11 KWNS 171817
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171816
ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-172045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0439
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0116 PM CDT Thu May 17 2018

Areas affected...southern Alabama...far southeast Mississippi and
the western Florida Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 171816Z - 172045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered storms will affect the area and isolated severe
hail or wind is possible.

DISCUSSION...A line of storms has consolidated along a surging
outflow in association with an MCV across western AL, with tail end
trailing into far southeast MS. Substantial instability exists near
southern portions of this line and areas to the south, aided by a
thermal trough aloft. Other isolated cells capable of hail were
ongoing across far southeast MS where westerly flow around the MCV
to the north has enhanced convergence.

The most likely area for a few severe reports is expected to be
across southern AL into the western FL Panhandle, where instability
is the greatest and a weak surface low exists in advance of the
storms. Although the main push is to the east with the outflow/MCV,
a gradual southward propagation is possible due to the strong
instability and falling pressures.

..Jewell/Weiss.. 05/17/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON 30368875 31478899 31548896 31748854 32048797 32378775
32588719 32438670 32218624 31978603 31208595 30818604
30258630 30328697 30188753 30098828 30268870 30368875



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ACUS11 KWNS 250458
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250457
LAZ000-TXZ000-250600-

Mesoscale Discussion 0439
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1157 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2019

Areas affected...far east-central TX and northwest LA

Concerning...Tornado Watch 100...

Valid 250457Z - 250600Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 100 continues.

SUMMARY...Stronger circulations and a tornado with a recent TDS
signature are indicative of the conditionality being met of an
otherwise supportive mesoscale environment for low-level mesocyclone
rotation.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery shows an intensifying band of
quasi-discrete and embedded circulations near the LA/TX border.
KPOE VAD data for storm motions indicate around 250-300 m2/s2 0-1km
SRH is present over west-central and northwest LA. The moist
environment coupled with sufficient buoyancy/shear in the low levels
will continue to pose a threat for a tornado or two during the next
few hours over northwest LA. A squall line mesovortex tornado risk
will likely concentrate in the far northwestern part of LA with the
more notable supercell tornado risk farther south.

..Smith.. 04/25/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...

LAT...LON 31789394 32689387 32899284 32109271 31489310 31039446
31789394



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