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ACUS11 KWNS 151515
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151515
SCZ000-NCZ000-151715-
Mesoscale Discussion 0266
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1015 AM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018
Areas affected...west central through central South Carolina through
western and central North Carolina
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 151515Z - 151715Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Storms are expected to undergo a gradual increase in
organization and intensity through mid day and persist into the
afternoon over the western through central Carolinas. Line segments
with embedded bows/mesovortices and some supercell structures are
expected with damaging wind and a few tornadoes the main threats. A
tornado watch will likely be needed before 17Z.
DISCUSSION...Late this morning a line of storms from the western
Carolinas into southeast GA is moving northeast. An inflection is
apparent in the line over east central GA in proximity to a
northeast-advancing MCV. Downstream the warm sector continues to
moisten with advection of upper 60s F dewpoints. The modest theta-e
advection and a few cloud breaks will contribute to further
destabilization. However, weak mid-level lapse rates will limit
MLCAPE to generally 500-1000 J/kg. A gradual intensification of
storms is expected as surface temperatures warm through the mid 70s. Strengthening low to mid-level winds associated with the MCV and northeast-ejecting upper trough will result in strong unidirectional
shear and sufficiently large 0-1 km hodographs for a few low-level mesocyclones. Overall eastward speed of the lines will be tempered
by the deep layer winds being largely parallel to the initiating
boundaries. However, embedded bowing segments and mesovortices
moving more rapidly northeast will pose a risk for damaging wind and
a few tornadoes.
..Dial/Guyer.. 04/15/2018
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...
LAT...LON 36367997 34997971 33398038 33198146 33868174 34958150
36148116 36367997
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