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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0436

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, May 16, 2018 19:10:31
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    ACUS11 KWNS 161910
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 161910
    TXZ000-162145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0436
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0210 PM CDT Wed May 16 2018

    Areas affected...Parts of southwest Texas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

    Valid 161910Z - 162145Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Scattered storms are expected to form by around 22Z across
    southwest Texas, with large hail and locally strong winds possible.

    DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a weakening boundary roughly
    from just east of Midland to south of San Angelo where strong
    heating continues. Temperatures were approaching 90 F west of this
    boundary, which may provide a focus for eventual storm development
    given weak convergence. Another weak boundary was evident farther
    north near Sweetwater. Meanwhile, towering CU were already
    developing over the higher terrain between Ft. Stockton and Alpine
    where capping has been eroded.

    Objective analysis indicates MUCAPE on the order of 2000-3000 J/kg
    with relatively steep low to mid level lapse rates. Light but
    veering winds with height in the low levels beneath modest
    northwesterly midlevel flow and strong upper-level flow is resulting
    in shear profiles supportive of organized cellular activity. Models
    suggest storms may form between 21-22Z, both over the higher terrain
    and near the residual outflow boundaries. These storms would then
    travel southeastward for several hours, with a threat of hail and/or
    wind. A small Slight Risk will be added in the 20Z outlook update.

    ..Jewell/Weiss.. 05/16/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...

    LAT...LON 30010110 30150184 30080278 30220299 30680270 31130215
    31590189 31950186 32100189 32780195 33170183 33280160
    33090124 32650079 32200038 31650010 30769985 30259986
    29900013 29820043 30010110



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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, April 24, 2019 22:24:09
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 242224
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 242223
    TXZ000-242330-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0436
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0523 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2019

    Areas affected...middle TX coast

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

    Valid 242223Z - 242330Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...A few severe thunderstorms capable of large hail/severe
    gusts are possible this evening.

    DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery indicates intensifying
    updrafts (via glaciation) on the southern portion of the composite front/outflow draped southwest-northeast across south TX. Visible
    imagery shows a bubbling cumulus field along the boundary. As mid-
    to upper-level forcing for ascent encroaches on the region as the
    shortwave trough moves east this evening, additional storm
    development is forecast to occur south of the McMullen/Live Oak
    county storm. Isolated large hail and severe gusts are the primary
    hazards with the stronger storms this evening.

    ..Smith/Grams.. 04/24/2019

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...BRO...

    LAT...LON 28579817 29039724 29189605 28649587 27179736 27009851
    27129954 28579817



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