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ACUS11 KWNS 042235
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042235
IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-050030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1013
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0535 PM CDT Wed Jul 04 2018

Areas affected...Portions of central/eastern NE...far western
IA...and extreme southeastern SD

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 042235Z - 050030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated large hail threat should continue this
evening, with some potential for strong/damaging winds possible if thunderstorms can grow upscale. WW issuance remains possible.

DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms have formed over the past
couple of hours along a surface boundary across northeastern NE.
Large-scale lift remains nebulous across this region, although a
small mid-level perturbation possibly related to prior convection
may be aiding convective maintenance. A very moist and unstable
airmass resides to the south of the boundary, with MLCAPE around
2000-3000 J/kg per 22Z RAP mesoanalysis estimates. Modest low and
mid-level wind fields have generally limited greater storm
organization thus far, with the better flow mostly displaced to the
north of the surface boundary. Still, around 30-35 kt of effective
bulk shear may be enough to support marginal supercell structures as
convection forms and then lifts north of the boundary. Isolated
large hail should be the main threat with ongoing activity, and a
brief tornado is also possible as storms cross the front. If
additional convection can form along the front in central NE and
then develop eastward as a small bowing cluster, as the past several
runs of the HRRR suggest, then perhaps a greater strong/damaging
wind threat would exist. For now, Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance
remains possible, and mainly dependent on additional signs of
development in central NE.

..Gleason/Grams.. 07/04/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...

LAT...LON 41910056 42759956 43019841 43019709 42969601 42569594
42239622 41859779 41349930 41330020 41490060 41910056



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