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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1012

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, July 04, 2018 20:18:40
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    ACUS11 KWNS 042018
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 042018
    TXZ000-042115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1012
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0318 PM CDT Wed Jul 04 2018

    Areas affected...portions of central Texas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 042018Z - 042115Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible with
    intensifying storms across the region. A WW issuance is not
    anticipated at this time.

    DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms continue to increase across the
    region just downstream of a tropical mid/upper low centered near
    CLL. Stout surface heating has resulted in areas of weak to
    moderate instability (500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE) and steep low-level
    lapse rates just ahead of these storms. Meanwhile, maturing cold
    pools beneath ongoing convection were resulting in a few strong wind
    gusts (47 kts recently reported at Austin within the past 45
    minutes). These trends should continue through the early evening -
    especially if storms can congeal into linear segments that could
    propagate west-southwestward amidst 30-kt northeasterly 700mb flow.
    Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible with this activity, and a
    brief spinup or two may also occur if updrafts can interact
    favorably with low-level boundaries across the region. These
    threats should remain too isolated to necessitate a WW issuance.

    ..Cook.. 07/04/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

    LAT...LON 30619709 30939766 31039847 30849910 30409964 29919980
    29189943 28909857 29119761 29649708 30119698 30619709



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