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ACUS11 KWNS 042003
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042002
ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-042100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1011
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0302 PM CDT Wed Jul 04 2018

Areas affected...far southeastern Arkansas...northern
Mississippi...and northern Alabama

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 042002Z - 042100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered convection continues to increase in coverage and
will pose an isolated/brief damaging wind threat through the
afternoon. A WW issuance is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Scattered, forward-propagating thunderstorms have
increased over the past hour or so. These storms are in an
environment characterized by strong (3000-4000+ J/kg MUCAPE) and
deep easterly flow through the lower troposphere - maximized at
around 25-30 kts around 700 mb. The easterly flow was supporting westward-moving clusters of storms that may pose a brief damaging
wind threat through the early evening. This threat will be too
isolated for a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance.

..Cook.. 07/04/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...

LAT...LON 32779026 33049125 33479164 34149158 34529087 34838983
35008768 34728654 34198578 33478577 32858646 32678823
32779026



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