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ACUS11 KWNS 151335
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151334
GAZ000-FLZ000-151500-

Mesoscale Discussion 0265
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0834 AM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

Areas affected...northern Florida through southeast Georgia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 151334Z - 151500Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Storms have shown an increase in organization and
intensity during the past hour and might remain capable of damaging
wind and a couple of tornadoes through the morning. Trends are being
monitored for a watch.

DISCUSSION...Storms have recently increased in organization and
intensity from southwest GA into northwest FL and this might be in
part to the influence of an MCV that is moving northeast through
southwest GA. The downstream boundary layer is moist with middle to
upper 60s F dewpoints, and some cloud breaks will allow further
boundary layer destabilization this morning. However very weak lapse
rates and the presence of a mid-level inversion remains a limiting
factor. Nevertheless, storms are embedded within very strong
low-level and deep-layer shear profiles supporting potential for
embedded bowing structures and mesovortices. Further destabilization
of the boundary layer might be sufficient for a sustained severe
threat through the morning.

..Dial/Guyer.. 04/15/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...

LAT...LON 29598324 30958309 31858319 32468275 32228156 31388154
30518167 29658223 29598324



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ACUS11 KWNS 061830
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061830
OKZ000-062100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0265
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0130 PM CDT Sat Apr 06 2019

Areas affected...Portions of OK

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 061830Z - 062100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms should redevelop this afternoon and may pose
some threat for hail. Watch issuance is possible.

DISCUSSION...A compact shortwave trough with mid-level dry slot will
continue moving northeastward across OK/KS this afternoon. In the
wake of earlier convection which has generally weakened/dissipated,
additional thunderstorms should form near a surface low across
western OK by 20-21Z. Recent visible satellite imagery shows
clearing across parts of western/central OK, and low-level
convergence is already encouraging cumulus development along/south
of the low at 1830Z. Strengthening winds through mid levels will
support 40-50+ kt of effective bulk shear, and thunderstorms will
have the potential to become organized and rotate. However, the main uncertainty and potentially limiting factor will be how much
instability can redevelop this afternoon. Some steepening of
mid-level lapse rates should occur as the dry slot aloft moves over
central OK, but surface dewpoints should remain generally in the
upper 50s to around 60. Even so, temperatures increasing into the
upper 60s to lower 70s suggest that MLCAPE up to 1000-1250 J/kg may
develop across parts of OK by late afternoon. If this occurs, then
isolated large hail would be possible with the strongest cores.
Although not immediately likely, convective trends will be monitored
for watch issuance this afternoon.

..Gleason/Hart.. 04/06/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON 34539898 35559885 36659861 36969814 36979683 36729614
36409585 35459596 34939651 34499765 34349866 34539898



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