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ACUS11 KWNS 041952
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041951
NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-042045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1010
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0251 PM CDT Wed Jul 04 2018

Areas affected...eastern Colorado...southeastern Wyoming...and
western Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 041951Z - 042045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Convection across central Colorado and adjacent far
southeastern Wyoming should continue to expand into a few
thunderstorms across the discussion area through the afternoon. A
WW issuance is possible, although convective trends will be
monitored.

DISCUSSION...Towering cumulus has been confined to 1) higher
elevations of central Colorado/southeastern Wyoming and 2) eastward
along a cold front near El Paso County, CO recently. Warming
surface temperatures, steepening low and mid-level lapse rates, and
weak low-level upslope flow will continue to allow for storms to
develop through the afternoon - similar to what has been observed
just west of Cheyenne recently. Models (particularly the HRRR) also
indicate potential for at least isolated thunderstorm development
across the discussion area (including portions of west-central
Nebraska) through the afternoon hours - although convective coverage
remains a concern as much of the area of cumulus resides upstream of
a mid-level shortwave now over northeastern Colorado. Weak
low-level wind fields/shear will promote loosely-organized clusters
of outflow-dominant storms, with potential for hail/damaging wind
gusts and upscale growth into linear segments should storms
materialize as expected. Convective trends may necessitate a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance - especially in eastern portions of the
discussion area where stronger buoyancy (amidst low-70s F dewpoints)
resides.

..Cook/Hart.. 07/04/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON 41810612 41960587 42130484 42350294 42280086 41670055
41370115 40430208 39740278 38990352 38470376 38320432
38690505 40240541 41810612



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