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ACUS11 KWNS 041528
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041527
IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-041730-

Mesoscale Discussion 1008
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1027 AM CDT Wed Jul 04 2018

Areas affected...Parts of southern Minnesota...northern
Iowa...adjacent northeastern Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 041527Z - 041730Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development and intensification is expected
to be gradual into this afternoon, but activity may be accompanied
by increasing severe weather potential by 1-3 PM CDT.

DISCUSSION...At least some increase and intensification of
thunderstorm development appears ongoing within an arcing band ahead
of a convectively generated or enhanced cyclonic mid-level
circulation now migrating east/northeastward across the Sioux Falls
area. This activity is intersecting the southwestern flank of a
large conglomerate surface cold pool associated with overnight
convection, where enhancement of shear and lift could contribute to thunderstorm development.

Given warm temperatures aloft associated with elevated mixed layer
air, and the lack of appreciable synoptic-scale support, further
convective development and intensification into the afternoon hours
seems likely to be gradual. However, with continuing insolation,
coinciding weakening of inhibition and increasing CAPE (in excess of
3000 J/kg) may eventually become supportive of thunderstorms with
increasing severe weather potential.

..Kerr/Hart.. 07/04/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...

LAT...LON 43769333 43589138 42169216 41699443 41389577 41519677
42069711 42559577 43469480 43769333



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