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ACUS11 KWNS 220043
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220043
SDZ000-NEZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-220315-

Mesoscale Discussion 0816
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0743 PM CDT Thu Jun 21 2018

Areas affected...Southeast Montana...Eastern Wyoming...Far Western
Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 220043Z - 220315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A marginal wind damage and hail threat will continue for a
few more hours this evening from southeast Montana into eastern
Wyoming and far western Nebraska. Weather watch issuance is not
expected.

DISCUSSION...Several diffuse line segments are ongoing from
south-central Montana south-southeastward into east-central Wyoming.
A corridor of instability is analyzed by the RAP ahead of this
convection with MLCAPE values estimated to be in the 1000 to 1500
J/kg range. In addition, forecast soundings show moderate to strong
deep-layer shear profiles and steep mid-level lapse rates near 8.0
C/km. This will be favorable for a marginal severe threat as the
storms move eastward across the instability corridor over the next
couple of hours. Isolated marginally severe wind gusts will be
possible along the leading edge of the better defined and more
intense line segments. Any severe threat will likely become more
isolated as the storms move eastward into far southeast Montana and
far eastern Wyoming later this evening where lapse rates are not as
steep.

..Broyles/Grams.. 06/22/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...

LAT...LON 41190469 41270390 42030354 42830367 43810429 44860449
45560477 46010511 46740591 46820684 46700725 46530758
46160785 45590817 45120798 44450720 43670688 43040678
42370627 41680550 41190469



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