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ACUS11 KWNS 212330
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212330
OKZ000-TXZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-220200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0815
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0630 PM CDT Thu Jun 21 2018

Areas affected...Eastern New Mexico...Northwestern Texas
Panhandle...Oklahoma Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 212330Z - 220200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A marginal severe threat will likely continue for a few
more hours this evening across eastern New Mexico. The threat may
eventually affect the western Oklahoma Panhandle and northwestern
Texas Panhandle. Isolated severe hail and strong gusty winds would
be the primary threats. Weather watch issuance is not expected
across the region this evening.

DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a surface trough
extending from south-central Colorado southward into central New
Mexico. Thunderstorms have developed to the east of the trough in
the higher terrain of northeast New Mexico and in the Sacramento
Mountains of southeast New Mexico. The convection in the
northeastern part of New Mexico will gradually move eastward toward
the New Mexico and Texas state line where instability is markedly
greater. The RAP is analyzing moderate instability across the
western Texas Panhandle with MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range.
This should enable the storms to maintain intensity as they move
eastward across the southern High Plains this evening. The
instability combined with 40 to 50 kt of deep-layer shear will be
favorable for marginally severe storms capable of producing hail and
strong wind gusts. The favored corridor for development would be
along a zone of convergence evident on satellite imagery over the
western Oklahoma Panhandle and in the far northwestern Texas
Panhandle where low-level moisture is maximized. The storms
developing in southeast New Mexico are located in an area of strong
capping. This should limit the duration of the marginal severe
threat there.

..Broyles/Grams.. 06/21/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON 37270272 37370325 37290399 37130438 36540472 35920478
33960518 33170527 32790509 32710456 33420372 34590286
35940143 37100156 37270272



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