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ACUS11 KWNS 211853
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211853
ILZ000-IAZ000-212130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0810
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0153 PM CDT Thu Jun 21 2018

Areas affected...Part of northwest IL and eastern IA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 211853Z - 212130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A tornado or two cannot be ruled out this afternoon across
part of northwest IL and eastern IA, though the areal coverage and
temporal extent of this severe risk is expected to remain quite low.
A tornado watch is not warranted for this region.

DISCUSSION...Trends in early afternoon mosaic radar imagery,
lightning data and surface observations showed a band of storms were
located along a portion of an occluded front from eastern IA
(Johnson County) to northwest IL (Tazewell County). These storms
had developed within a marginally unstable environment (MLCAPE of
500-1000 J/kg). Additional destabilization is likely in a narrow
corridor (25-40 miles wide) north of the front where satellite
imagery showed mostly clear skies for continued heating of a moist
environment. Area wind profilers per NWS radars indicated
relatively weak kinematics, though ambient vorticity with the
deep-layer cyclone and some directional shear in vicinity of the
occluded front could favor further low-level rotation for funnels.
Meanwhile, until surface heating decreases, the co-location of
surface vorticity with the occluded front, 0-3 km CAPE of 100 J/kg,
and modest 0-3 km lapse rates suggest a marginal tornado
probability.

..Peters/Dial.. 06/21/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...DVN...

LAT...LON 40658991 41309088 41839167 42069225 42279211 42009102
41609024 41338964 41038913 40838888 40508903 40458958
40658991



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