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ACUS11 KWNS 211731
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211731
TNZ000-ALZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-212000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0809
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 PM CDT Thu Jun 21 2018

Areas affected...Southern IL...southeast MO...northeast AR...western KY...western TN...and northern MS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 211731Z - 212000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to develop this afternoon from
north to south, with an increasing potential for some of the storms
to become severe producing a damaging wind threat and possibly hail.
A severe thunderstorm watch is being considered from parts of
southern Illinois southward to northern Mississippi and northeast
Arkansas.

DISCUSSION...Trends in mosaic radar imagery and lightning data
indicated a couple broken bands of storms have developed from
western IL into southeast MO, with new storm formation underway
across north-central AR. The western most band of storms was
located along a cold front, while the leading band formed in
vicinity of a differential heating boundary. Nonetheless, this
activity has developed within a destabilizing/moist boundary-layer
and in an axis of moderate instability. Additional height falls
attendant to the exit region of a 50+ kt 500-mb jet impinging on the
discussion area this afternoon and evening will further support
sustained thunderstorm development. The moderate instability and
effective bulk shear of 35-45 kt will aid in storm organization with
damaging winds and hail being the primary severe threats, as storms
spread from west to east.

..Peters/Dial.. 06/21/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...LZK...

LAT...LON 38038928 38008813 36388757 34888817 34158910 34219026
34819112 35669092 37179012 38038928



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