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ACUS11 KWNS 150646
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150645
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-150845-

Mesoscale Discussion 0263
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0145 AM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

Areas affected...southeast Alabama...parts of the Florida
Panhandle...and extreme southwest Georgia

Concerning...Tornado Watch 50...

Valid 150645Z - 150845Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 50 continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated strong wind gusts and/or a brief tornado or two
remain possible in/near Tornado Watch 50.

DISCUSSION...Latest objective analysis shows a narrow zone of
moist/minimally unstable air across WW 50, ahead of the
eastward-moving line of convection. As a zone of ascent associated
with a very subtle disturbance within the broader trough (noted over
the northwest Gulf per WV loop) spreads eastward across the central
Gulf Coast region, storms will likely be maintained over the next
several hours. With background shear supportive of updraft organization/rotation, limited severe/brief tornado risk may persist
across the WW area. Strongest convection, however, is forecast to
remain offshore, south of the Florida Panhandle coast.

..Goss.. 04/15/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

LAT...LON 29108635 29508657 31008633 31578608 31958488 31898449
31168447 30018510 29178489 28518503 28738589 29108635



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ACUS11 KWNS 061409
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061408
TXZ000-061715-

Mesoscale Discussion 0263
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0908 AM CDT Sat Apr 06 2019

Areas affected...Central/Southeast/East TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 061408Z - 061715Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm coverage and intensity may
necessitate watch issuance during the next several hours. All severe
hazards, including tornadoes, are possible.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have developed across the broad warm
frontal zone extending from central TX into southern LA. Air mass
across this region is currently characterized by temperatures in the
upper 60s/low 70s and dewpoints in the upper 60s. These conditions
do not currently support surface-based storms but persistent
forcing for ascent coupled with continued moisture advection will
likely erode any inhibition within the next few hours.

Bulk vertical shear is supportive of organized storms capable of all
severe hazards. Surface winds are expected to remain relatively
weak, which leads to some uncertainty regarding the tornado
potential. Even so, augmented lift, increased surface vorticity, and
higher low-level moisture along the front (which is expected to
sharpen as daytime heating increases), could lead to a greater
tornado threat closer to the front.

Convective trends will be monitored closely and a watch may
eventually be needed.

..Mosier/Hart.. 04/06/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

LAT...LON 30749866 31639711 32169588 32069437 31329374 30159433
29109710 29299920 29909941 30749866



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