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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0665

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, June 07, 2018 20:11:14
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 072011
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 072010
    OKZ000-TXZ000-072145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0665
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0310 PM CDT Thu Jun 07 2018

    Areas affected...Portions of northwest Texas and western Oklahoma

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

    Valid 072010Z - 072145Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in
    coverage/intensity this afternoon. Large hail and severe wind gusts
    will be possible with the strongest storms. A WW will be issued
    shortly.

    DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery and radar/lightning data indicate
    thunderstorms are developing along a remnant east/west boundary that
    was recently analyzed near Childress, Texas. Mesoanalysis suggests
    the environment across this area has become moderately unstable
    (e.g., MLCAPE up to 3000 J/kg) as a result of ample insolation over
    the last several hours. Furthermore, effective bulk shear near 30-35
    knots suggests at least some storm organization with perhaps
    transient supercell structures in the most robust/discrete
    convection.

    Convective evolution is a bit more uncertain north of the boundary
    where visible satellite imagery shows stable wave clouds remaining.
    If storms can develop and become surface based, then large hail and
    severe winds will be possible with the strongest storms.

    A WW issuance will be issued soon.

    ..Elliott/Nauslar/Weiss.. 06/07/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

    LAT...LON 33590081 33790134 34210133 34550122 35170098 35580093
    36030104 36280101 36390063 36389954 35369942 34289936
    33849936 33620025 33590081



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