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ACUS11 KWNS 071920
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071920
MTZ000-WYZ000-IDZ000-072045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0663
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0220 PM CDT Thu Jun 07 2018

Areas affected...Parts of the northern Rockies

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 071920Z - 072045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few brief severe storms are possible this afternoon, but
watch issuance appears unlikely.

DISCUSSION...Convection has blossomed across much of the northern
Rockies this afternoon, with a few deeper cores noted in MRMS CAPPI
products. Ongoing insolation and adequate boundary-layer moisture
(e.g., surface dew points in the 40s/lower 50s) are favorable for a
few more vigorous updrafts within an environment characterized by
MLCAPE near 500-1000 J/kg. Regional VWP and mesoanalysis data
suggest mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear remain modest --
perhaps around 25-30 kt of effective shear at most. Additionally,
large-scale ascent appears nebulous, given slight height rises
behind an impulse lifting northeast across Montana. In turn, most
convection may be strongly rooted to terrain circulations, resulting
in some weakening as they move towards lower elevations. Therefore,
the severe threat appears too limited for watch issuance at this
time, but a few stronger cells may be capable of brief gusty winds
and marginally severe hail.

..Picca/Weiss.. 06/07/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...PIH...MSO...BOI...

LAT...LON 45871528 46251414 46361315 46341139 46361027 46090927
45960892 45430866 44670855 43810906 43561008 43921092
44391185 44291240 44101308 43751368 43641437 43981507
44481561 45271568 45871528



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