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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0662

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, June 07, 2018 16:24:45
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 071624
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 071624
    MTZ000-071730-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0662
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1124 AM CDT Thu Jun 07 2018

    Areas affected...Portions of central/eastern Montana

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

    Valid 071624Z - 071730Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...A localized damaging wind and hail threat exists ahead of
    a small band of thunderstorms moving northeast over central Montana
    late this morning. Convective trends are being monitored for an
    increase in coverage, which would necessitate a severe thunderstorm
    watch.

    DISCUSSION...KBLX data exhibit a small cluster of thunderstorms
    (mainly over Fergus/Petroleum Counties in MT) moving northeast
    around 30-40 mph. While the GGW 12Z sounding, adjusted for
    pre-convective surface conditions, indicates some remaining
    surface-based inhibition, convergence along storm outflow is
    overcoming this inhibition. With further destabilization through
    afternoon, these cells will likely maintain a corridor of severe
    potential to the northeast. Steep mid-level lapse rates and modest
    effective shear will continue to support an organized multicell
    system, capable of large hail and damaging winds. Therefore, a watch
    could become necessary, and trends are being monitored for a
    continued uptick in coverage/intensity.

    ..Picca/Weiss.. 06/07/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

    LAT...LON 47200956 46430854 46330719 46490555 46980441 47570412
    48500515 48770673 48100882 47410943 47200956



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