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ACUS11 KWNS 071343
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071342
OKZ000-TXZ000-071545-

Mesoscale Discussion 0661
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0842 AM CDT Thu Jun 07 2018

Areas affected...Portions of Oklahoma and north Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 071342Z - 071545Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A cluster of strong to briefly severe storms is expected
to progress south/southeast towards the Red River through this
afternoon. Isolated gusty, damaging winds and possibly a marginally
severe hail report or two may occur. Trends will be monitored, but
watch issuance is not currently anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Current radar mosaic data illustrate a cluster of
thunderstorms over central Oklahoma this morning, and the 12Z OUN
sounding suggests a modest 850mb low-level jet (LLJ) and related
warm advection are sustaining this complex. Through the morning
hours, weak mean convective layer flow and the south/southwesterly
LLJ should encourage continued south-southeast movement of the
complex. KTLX Z/ZDR data confirm that new updrafts are generally
being focused along the southern portion of the complex.

The OUN observed sounding sampled steep mid-level lapse rates, which
will enable robust updraft acceleration. However, weak mid-level
flow will likely limit overall organization. Subsequently, the hail
threat should be isolated/sparse at most, especially considering the
amount of melting likely occurring below 10K ft. The damaging wind
threat may be slightly greater, owing to sustained southward
propagation and the 700-500mb EML noted in the sounding.
Nonetheless, the severe threat should be limited enough to preclude
watch issuance as the cluster tracks towards the Red River through
mid-day.

..Picca/Weiss.. 06/07/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 35339813 35739764 35979721 35999652 35569629 33619605
33459657 33499720 33759775 34459829 34899837 35339813



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