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ACUS11 KWNS 070458
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070458
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-070700-

Mesoscale Discussion 0658
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1158 PM CDT Wed Jun 06 2018

Areas affected...Northeast Colorado...southwest Nebraska...northwest
Kansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 158...

Valid 070458Z - 070700Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 158
continues.

SUMMARY...Convection appears to be weakening in general, but
isolated strong storm development persists and could continue into
the overnight hours with some lingering risk for severe hail and
wind.

DISCUSSION...The conglomerate convectively generated surface cold
pool has maintained a steady, but rather slow to modest,
eastward/southward advancement across southwestern
Nebraska/northwest Kansas/northeast Colorado the past few hours.
The southwestern flank has spread out ahead of the primary lingering thunderstorm activity, which is being maintained by lift above the
cold pool, on the nose of the modest southerly low-level jet. Drier
lower/mid tropospheric air south of activity across Colorado and
northwest Kansas, coupled with warmer and more strongly capping
elevated mixed layer air may continue to inhibit development south
of the western Kansas/Nebraska border vicinity through 06-07Z.
Thereafter, as the central High Plains low-level jet veers around to
the southwest, it is possible that weaker inhibition and better
low-level moisture near/east of the Hill City vicinity could allow
for a sharper southward propagation of convection into north central
Kansas.

..Kerr.. 06/07/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...BOU...

LAT...LON 41299964 40859826 39869768 39119791 38870000 39060215
39380300 39830367 40710324 40610175 41170092 41299964



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