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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0599

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, May 31, 2018 22:47:47
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 312247
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 312246
    TNZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-010115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0599
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0546 PM CDT Thu May 31 2018

    Areas affected...Far Northeast Arkansas...Far southeast
    Missouri...Western and Middle Tennessee

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

    Valid 312246Z - 010115Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...The severe threat may develop east-southeastward from
    north-central Arkansas to middle Tennessee where large hail and wind
    damage will be possible later this evening. Weather watch issuance
    could be needed depending upon radar trends over the next couple of
    hours.

    DISCUSSION...A cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms is ongoing
    in southern Missouri which is associated with a mid Mississippi
    Valley shortwave trough and corridor of moderate instability.
    Regional WSR-88D VWPs show 0-6 km shear values in the 30 to 40 kt
    range and the RAP has a pocket of steep mid-level lapse rates
    located across western Tennessee. This suggests that supercells with
    isolated large hail will be possible early this evening. Supercells
    may track slightly south of east suggesting that some severe cells
    could move to just south of the watch into parts north-central
    Arkansas into western and middle Tennessee later this evening. If a
    linear MCS can organize, then a wind damage threat would also be
    likely.

    ..Broyles/Thompson.. 05/31/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...

    LAT...LON 35788641 35618744 35578909 35559086 35589218 35929245
    36249234 36479177 36608943 36638648 35788641



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