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ACUS11 KWNS 312236
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 312235
WYZ000-IDZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-010000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0598
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0535 PM CDT Thu May 31 2018

Areas affected...Portions of northeastern NV...far northern
UT...eastern ID...and western WY

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 139...

Valid 312235Z - 010000Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 139
continues.

SUMMARY...An isolated large hail and strong to damaging wind threat
should continue across mainly eastern portions of WW 139 and
vicinity.

DISCUSSION...22Z surface analysis shows a cold front extending from
eastern ID into northern NV. Modest surface heating amidst cloud
breaks has allowed temperatures to warm into the mid 60s to mid 70s
across lower elevations. Low-level moisture remains quite limited
across this region, which is tempering instability even with
modestly steep mid-level lapse rates. Latest RAP mesoanalysis
estimates MLCAPE is no greater than 1000 J/kg across southeastern
ID. But, strong mid-level winds and a veering profile with height
are resulting in 40-55 kt of effective bulk shear. Isolated
supercells have been noted over the past couple of hours, mainly
across southeastern ID where relatively greater low-level moisture
is present. Large hail and damaging winds will remain the primary
threats through the early evening hours. As the cold front continues
slowly eastward and diurnal cooling begins later this evening, the
overall severe threat should diminish from west to east across the
Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

..Gleason.. 05/31/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...SLC...PIH...LKN...

LAT...LON 41211472 42601381 43831305 44381255 44461099 44941097
44950783 44630787 44130850 43160995 42081105 41881282
41331377 40991421 41211472



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