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ACUS11 KWNS 150414
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150414
MIZ000-151015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0262
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1114 PM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018

Areas affected...Lower MI

Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation

Valid 150414Z - 151015Z

SUMMARY...Long-duration mixed precipitation event expected to begin
across Lower MI within the next hour or so. Expectation is for this
event to last throughout the night.

DISCUSSION...Well-developed warm conveyor attendant to a deepening
mid-latitude cyclone will continue to contribute to warm air
advection through a sharp frontal zone. At the surface, low
associated with the cyclone is centered over east-central IL with a
warm front extending east-southeastward across IN and into
south-central OH before turning back northeastward into west-central
PA. Expansive precipitation shield continues to expand northward
toward the sub-freezing temperatures across western portions of
Lower MI. Forecast soundings show a substantial warm nose around 850
mb with sub-freezing temperatures persisting at the surface.

As a result, the continued northeastward progression the
precipitation will likely bring the onset of freezing rain across
portions western Lower MI within the next hour or so. Slow progress
of the parent cyclone will likely keep this area under light to
occasionally moderate precipitation throughout the night.
Predominant precipitation type is expected to be freezing rain
across central and southern portions of Lower MI while colder
surface temperatures will promote more sleet farther north.

..Mosier.. 04/15/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...

LAT...LON 42338488 42578623 43248657 44888599 45248379 43688330
42398358 42338488



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ACUS11 KWNS 061259
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061258
TXZ000-OKZ000-061430-

Mesoscale Discussion 0262
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0758 AM CDT Sat Apr 06 2019

Areas affected...portions of central into north TX and south-central
OK

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 061258Z - 061430Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe wind gusts and possibly some
hail is possible from south-central OK into portions of north TX.

DISCUSSION...A line of convection stretching from central TX
north/northeast to Young and Archer Counties in north TX will
continue track northeast around 35-40 kt this morning. Latest
mesoanalysis and 12z FWD RAOB indicated only weak inhibition
immediately ahead of the north TX bowing segment. South of the Red
River, surface dewpoints have increased into the low to mid 60s
overnight, resulting in SBCAPE values around 1000 J/kg. This should
help to maintain ongoing convection this morning and some increase
in intensity is possible, especially south of the Red River.
Additionally, latest VWP from KDYX showed a westerly inflow jet of
around 50 kt between 1-2 kft. This could further enhance a risk for
a few strong to severe wind gusts this morning across parts of north
TX. Addition storms south/southwest of the bowing segment also could
produce gusty winds and perhaps some hail as the line encounters
steeper midlevel lapse rates and marginal shear.

The bowing segment of the line should decrease in intensity with
time as it tracks north of the Red River where inhibition remains
stronger per 12z OUN RAOB. Surface dewpoints generally range from
the mid 50s to near 60 south of I-40 in OK. Widespread cloud cover
and more marginal low level moisture should limit severe potential
at least in the short term across south-central OK this morning.

..Leitman/Thompson.. 04/06/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...

LAT...LON 31829823 31499886 31399930 31579955 32119936 32799917
33359909 33679907 33989896 34279876 34419835 34379792
34079726 33589714 33129729 32299777 31829823



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