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ACUS11 KWNS 312156
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 312155
SDZ000-NEZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-010000-
Mesoscale Discussion 0597
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0455 PM CDT Thu May 31 2018
Areas affected...Portions of northeastern WY...far southeastern
MT...and western SD
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 312155Z - 010000Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat may develop late this afternoon
and continue through this evening. Large hail and damaging winds
would be the main threats. Watch issuance is unlikely due to only
isolated thunderstorm coverage expected.
DISCUSSION...Isolated convection has recently developed across the
higher terrain of central/eastern WY as large-scale ascent
associated with an upper trough over the western CONUS overspreads
this region. A narrow corridor of relatively greater low-level
moisture exists across northwestern SD into far southeastern MT,
where surface dewpoints are generally in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
Across northeastern WY, modest low-level southwesterly downslope
flow has acted to dry/mix the low levels, with a relative minimum in instability noted over this area. Although this region resides on
the southern fringes of better mid-level southwesterly flow, there
is enough veering/strengthening of winds with height to support
around 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear and perhaps some supercell
structures. Isolated instances of large hail and damaging winds will
be possible with any thunderstorm that can strengthen in the greater
low-level moisture axis. However, the overall severe threat will
likely remain too isolated to justify a Severe Thunderstorm Watch.
..Gleason/Thompson.. 05/31/2018
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ABR...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...
LAT...LON 42570558 42980594 44640630 45020498 45410445 45890397
45910186 45250159 44300190 43800289 42600457 42570558
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