• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0597

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, May 31, 2018 21:56:12
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    ACUS11 KWNS 312156
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 312155
    SDZ000-NEZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-010000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0597
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0455 PM CDT Thu May 31 2018

    Areas affected...Portions of northeastern WY...far southeastern
    MT...and western SD

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 312155Z - 010000Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat may develop late this afternoon
    and continue through this evening. Large hail and damaging winds
    would be the main threats. Watch issuance is unlikely due to only
    isolated thunderstorm coverage expected.

    DISCUSSION...Isolated convection has recently developed across the
    higher terrain of central/eastern WY as large-scale ascent
    associated with an upper trough over the western CONUS overspreads
    this region. A narrow corridor of relatively greater low-level
    moisture exists across northwestern SD into far southeastern MT,
    where surface dewpoints are generally in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
    Across northeastern WY, modest low-level southwesterly downslope
    flow has acted to dry/mix the low levels, with a relative minimum in instability noted over this area. Although this region resides on
    the southern fringes of better mid-level southwesterly flow, there
    is enough veering/strengthening of winds with height to support
    around 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear and perhaps some supercell
    structures. Isolated instances of large hail and damaging winds will
    be possible with any thunderstorm that can strengthen in the greater
    low-level moisture axis. However, the overall severe threat will
    likely remain too isolated to justify a Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

    ..Gleason/Thompson.. 05/31/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ABR...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...

    LAT...LON 42570558 42980594 44640630 45020498 45410445 45890397
    45910186 45250159 44300190 43800289 42600457 42570558



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