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ACUS11 KWNS 311947
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 311947
NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-312145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0591
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0247 PM CDT Thu May 31 2018

Areas affected...East central and southeast Montana...far northwest
South Dakota...western and central North Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 311947Z - 312145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe may be possible within the next few hours,
with more widespread coverage possible later this afternoon and
evening. A WW may be needed for portions of the area in the next few
hours.

DISCUSSION...Isolated convection has developed across the discussion
area within the last few hours, amidst a warming/moistening boundary
layer beneath steep mid-level lapse rates. With up to 1500-2000 J/kg
MLCAPE and 30-40kt of effective bulk shear present, isolated
incidents of large hail or damaging winds are possible with the more
robust updrafts in the near term.

Later this afternoon, more widespread convection may develop across
the discussion area or move into the region from the west. Latest
model guidance suggests that adequate effective bulk shear and
buoyancy will remain in place across the area during the late
afternoon/early evening hours. Later storms may also become capable
of damaging winds and large hail.

Given the uncertainty of timing for more widespread severe, a WW may
be issued for parts of the discussion area pending more favorable
convective trends.

..Squitieri/Guyer/Hart.. 05/31/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...

LAT...LON 48140323 48390215 48340090 47870045 47320047 46950085
46330150 45770206 45200239 44650311 44460384 45010476
45840532 46860538 47700480 48140323



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