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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0590

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, May 31, 2018 19:30:13
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 311930
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 311929
    KYZ000-TNZ000-312100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0590
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0229 PM CDT Thu May 31 2018

    Areas affected...south-central Kentucky into Middle Tennessee

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 311929Z - 312100Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered strong storms will continue through
    the afternoon. A few strong wind gusts are possible with these
    storms, but the overall threat will remain marginal the remainder of
    the afternoon and a watch is not expected.

    DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms will continue through the
    afternoon in a very moist and unstable environment. Temperatures
    have warmed into the mid 80s to low 90s F across the region with
    dewpoints generally in the low 70s F. As a result, MLCAPE values
    near 2000 J/kg were noted. Deep layer shear and midlevel lapse rates
    are lackluster and this will limit longevity/organization, but DCAPE
    values are approaching 1500 J/kg and some strong wind gusts will
    continue to be possible through the remainder of the afternoon.
    Given the lack of a more organized threat, a watch is not expected
    at this time. While severe threat in the short term is expected to
    remain marginal, some hi-res guidance suggests a more organized
    bowing line may migrate into parts of Middle Tennessee later
    tonight, mainly after 00z.

    ..Leitman/Hart.. 05/31/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...

    LAT...LON 37218647 37318630 37378594 37408554 37358509 37288486
    37188470 37028466 36648486 35778541 35218584 35098670
    35158715 35268757 35418774 35568776 35798773 36188747
    36748699 37218647



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