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ACUS11 KWNS 311833
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 311833
WYZ000-MTZ000-IDZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-312030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0588
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0133 PM CDT Thu May 31 2018

Areas affected...Far northeast Nevada...central and eastern
Idaho...far northwest Wyoming...western and southern Montana

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely

Valid 311833Z - 312030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Trends for convection are increasing and one or more
Severe Thunderstorm Watches will be likely be needed this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Large scale lift is currently impinging on regions
experiencing low-level moistening atop modestly steep lapse rates
(6.5-7.5 C/km within a 1-6km layer). The inclusion of diurnal
heating occurring between cloud breaks along with the available
low-level moisture and steepening lapse rates are allowing MUCAPE
values to exceed 1000 J/kg in some locations within the discussion
area. Given effective bulk shear values of 40-50 kts across the
region, updraft organization is possible with any cells that manage
to develop. Relatively straight hodographs suggest that large hail
and perhaps damaging wind gusts will be the primary severe threats.

Latest high resolution guidance suggests that transient supercells
and bowing segments will be the dominant modes of convection, with
convective coverage increasing within the next few hours. As such,
one or more severe thunderstorm watches will likely be needed
sometime this afternoon.

..Squitieri/Guyer/Hart.. 05/31/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...SLC...PIH...MSO...BOI...LKN...

LAT...LON 46491500 46831444 47081347 46941247 46331121 45491046
44570998 43740983 43201021 42661115 41971234 41491439
41621557 42391668 44191655 45401620 46471514 46491500



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