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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0586

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, May 31, 2018 17:25:13
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 311725
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 311724
    MOZ000-ARZ000-311900-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0586
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1224 PM CDT Thu May 31 2018

    Areas affected...portions of southern Missouri and northern Arkansas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

    Valid 311724Z - 311900Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

    SUMMARY...Severe threat is rapidly increasing across southern MO
    into northern AR. A watch will likely be needed soon.

    DISCUSSION...Extensive cumulus field has developed in the vicinity
    of an outflow boundary from overnight convection. As morning clouds
    have quickly cleared from the area, temperatures have rebounded into
    the upper 70s to low 80s early this afternoon. With continued
    heating, capping will continue to erode and further destabilization
    will allow for convective initiation in the next couple of hours
    along/just south of the I-44 corridor in southwest MO.

    Deep layer shear around 40-50 kt will support supercell storms
    initially. Additionally, mean mixing ration values around 15-16 g/kg
    indicate high quality moisture across the region. While low level
    shear is not overly impressive, any cell that can remain discrete
    and interact with the surface boundary will pose a tornado threat.
    Directional shear in the lowest 3km is modest, so storms likely will
    tend to become outflow dominant with time. As such, upscale growth
    into one or more bowing segments is anticipated. Steep midlevel
    lapse rates, in conjunction with rather straight, long hodographs
    will further support large hail production, some of which may be 2+
    inches. Given the quickly recovering airmass, a watch may be needed
    soon.

    ..Leitman/Hart.. 05/31/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...

    LAT...LON 37049431 37199405 37959266 38199214 38279161 38219089
    38079040 37719009 37378992 36898996 36689002 36499017
    36359041 36079136 35899258 35969351 36359429 36709442
    37049431



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