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ACUS11 KWNS 182106
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182106
COZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-182300-

Mesoscale Discussion 0452
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0406 PM CDT Fri May 18 2018

Areas affected...portions of northeast Colorado

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 182106Z - 182300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few strong storms may produce marginally severe hail
near higher terrain in north-central CO. Strong storm potential
appears more uncertain and conditional further east and a watch is
not expected at this time.

DISCUSSION...Convection continues over the higher terrain of
north-central CO. The 19z RAOB from DNR indicated a stout cap just
above 700mb. This is evident in visible satellite imagery where
overcast skies have dominated much of the region today. Cloud cover
has been slow to erode to the north of an outflow boundary which
extends eastward from east-central CO through northern KS. This
cloud cover and weaker destabilization compared to points further
south across southeast CO has lead to considerable uncertainty in
convective evolution and any related severe threat. Steep midlevel
lapse rates and modest but adequate deep-layer shear could support
some marginally severe hail near and adjacent to higher terrain.
Storms may struggle to maintain intensity moving off of higher
terrain however. Given this uncertainty and capping issues further
east into the high Plains of northeastern CO, a watch is not
expected at this time.

..Leitman/Weiss.. 05/18/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON 41210498 41160417 41010369 40820333 40530320 39960310
39580339 39390386 39310438 39370492 39460521 39760542
40120561 40870567 41170517 41210498



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ACUS11 KWNS 261809
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261809
NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-262015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0452
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0109 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2019

Areas affected...southeastern Pennsylvania...northern Maryland and Delaware...southwest New Jersey

Concerning...Tornado Watch 105...

Valid 261809Z - 262015Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 105 continues.

SUMMARY...Storms will rapidly develop and evolve over the next
several hours, with damaging winds and a tornado or two possible.
The greatest tornado threat area appears to be from northern
Maryland into southeast Pennsylvania between 18-22Z.

DISCUSSION...Storms are increasing in coverage along the cold front
from central PA into central VA, and just to the east near the warm
front. These storms will continue to evolve as they proceed east
into an unstable and warming air mass, with increasing large-scale
lift aiding organization as well. Given the motion of the front, the
entire event may clear the coast by 00Z.

The 16Z IAD sounding shows 0-2 km mean winds in excess of 40 kt,
along with effective SRH over 200 m2/s2. This is favorable for
damaging winds, as well as occasional rotation in storms. Shear
profiles are stronger farther north into PA, where effective SRH is
in excess of 300 m2/s2 just on the cool side of the warm front.
Meanwhile, an axis of warmer air continues to mix northward into
southeast PA. This appears to be the most favorable area for a
tornado, either with any leading cells that develop and/or with cold
front/QLCS activity. Wind damage is possible with any storm.

..Jewell.. 04/26/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON 40947592 40677529 40307486 39907460 39627449 39367449
39107464 39027481 39027517 39097565 39107639 39087682
39147710 39377737 39717756 39977769 40277777 40487759
40767709 40947646 40947592



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