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ACUS11 KWNS 181943
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181943
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-182145-
Mesoscale Discussion 0450
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0243 PM CDT Fri May 18 2018
Areas affected...southeast Colorado through western KS...the eastern
TX panhandle and western OK
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 181943Z - 182145Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and damaging
wind are expected to develop by 21-22Z. Storms will eventually grow
upscale into lines with primary threat transitioning to damaging
wind this evening. A couple of severe thunderstorm watches are
anticipated by 21Z including one from southeast CO into southwest
KS, and another watch likely from the eastern TX panhandle into
western OK.
DISCUSSION...A quasi-stationary front extends from an area of low
pressure over southeast CO through central KS. Cold front extends
from the low through extreme southeast CO into northeast NM. Dryline
stretches south through the western OK and TX panhandles into west
TX. Mid to upper 50s F dewpoints reside in warm sector beneath a
capping inversion at the base of a warm elevated-mixed layer
contributing to MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg. Elevated convection has
been occurring over west TX near Lubbock, and additional mid-level
convection has developed during the last hour from east NM into the
TX panhandle. This activity is likely rooted above 700 mb and
appears to be forming in association with mid-level ascent
associated with a shortwave trough moving northeast through eastern
NM. This ascent combined with dryline mixing should erode the cap
sufficiently for storms to become rooted in the boundary layer over
the TX panhandle after 21Z. Additional storms are expected to
develop farther north in KS along stationary boundary as well as
along cold front and in the upslope region of southeast CO. Vertical
wind profiles with 30-40 kt effective bulk shear will support both
multicell and some supercell structures. Weaknesses in the winds
aloft and large low-level temperature-dewpoint spreads suggest
storms should become outflow dominant and congeal into line
segments. Large hail and damaging wind will be the main threats.
..Dial/Weiss.. 05/18/2018
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...PUB...
LAT...LON 37490312 37310264 37160160 36700125 35790127 34370118
33890033 34559942 35929891 37949871 38969931 39110111
38280323 37490312
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