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ACUS11 KWNS 112339
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112339
NEZ000-COZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-120115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0389
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0639 PM CDT Fri May 11 2018

Areas affected...Southeast WY...Northern CO

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 83...

Valid 112339Z - 120115Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 83
continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated severe threat continues locally across ww83,
although trends appear to be for weaker convection over the next
several hours.

DISCUSSION...Easterly boundary-layer flow/cooling appears to be
influencing convection across much of ww83. Radar trends over the
last hour or so depict weaker updrafts and less organization with
storms as they progress off the higher terrain into much cooler and
more stable air mass over the high Plains. Forecast soundings across
this region suggest continued cooling over the next few hours and
thermodynamic profiles will become increasingly hostile towards
robust updrafts. Additionally, CAMS guidance seemingly supports this
scenario with rapid weakening of convection forecast along the
longitude of the WY/NE.

..Darrow.. 05/11/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...BOU...CYS...RIW...

LAT...LON 40490625 43140629 43150330 40490337 40490625



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ACUS11 KWNS 181947
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181946
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-182115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0389
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0246 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019

Areas affected...southern la to eastern ms

Concerning...Tornado Watch 82...83...

Valid 181946Z - 182115Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 82, 83 continues.

SUMMARY...Short-term severe threat remains focused along a corridor
from southeastern LA into eastern MS.

DISCUSSION...Two distinct MCVs appear to have evolved within a
larger complex of convection. Longer-lived MCV is lifting northeast
across south-central LA, east of LFT. A more recent MCV is maturing
over west-central MS. Strong-severe convection is a bit more
concentrated ahead of these mesoscale features with embedded
supercells along the leading edge of a larger MCS. Latest diagnostic
data suggests adequate buoyancy has developed ahead of this complex
such that sustained organized structures are expected to persist
into the late afternoon, especially given the strengthening wind
fields across this region.

..Darrow.. 04/18/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON 29909183 31209050 32349034 33448914 32458834 29698981
29139118 29909183



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