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ACUS11 KWNS 142355
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142355
NYZ000-150500-

Mesoscale Discussion 0260
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0655 PM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018

Areas affected...Western into central New York State

Concerning...Freezing rain

Valid 142355Z - 150500Z

SUMMARY...A long-duration freezing rain event is underway across the
region. Rates above 0.05 inch per hour are possible over the next
3-6 hours.

DISCUSSION...Areas of light to moderate rainfall were migrating
eastward and entering western portions of the discussion area over
the past hour. Recent observations and point forecast soundings
indicate an extensive warm layer around 800-850 mb (temps around 5-8
C) atop a sub-freezing near-surface airmass with surface
temperatures around 25-32F. Freezing rain should be the dominant
precipitation type, with sleet mixing in northern portions of the
discussion area where surface temperatures are a bit colder.
Additionally, persistent isentropic ascent across the region (tied
to an axis of 20-30 kt southerly 850 mb flow) will aid in sustained
development of light to moderate precipitation across the discussion
area over the next 3-6 hours and possibly beyond. This long
duration of light to moderate precipitation will likely result in
freezing rain accumulations exceeding one-tenth of an inch in the
discussion area through tonight.

..Cook.. 04/14/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

LAT...LON 44467587 44297502 44067445 43627442 43087501 42727666
42357871 42407927 42467936 42717931 43017909 43247860
43397805 43657741 44467587



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ACUS11 KWNS 060011
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060010
TXZ000-NMZ000-060215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0260
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0710 PM CDT Fri Apr 05 2019

Areas affected...portions of West Texas...and the Texas South
Plains/Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 060010Z - 060215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Potential for hail and locally gusty/damaging winds will
exist with isolated storms now initiating over parts of western
Texas. WW may be needed this evening.

DISCUSSION...What is expected to be an initial round of
thunderstorms is now developing across portions of western Texas, in
a relatively dry, marginally unstable environment indicated by
latest objective analysis. The convection is initiating on the
Mexican side of the Texas Big Bend area, and over the Permian Basin,
near a dryline, and farther north into the South Plains region
near/north of a pseudo northwest-to-southeast warm front.

Despite modest CAPE (mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 500 J/kg),
deep-layer shear is sufficient for mid-level rotation, mainly due to
relatively strong southwesterly flow at mid levels. As lapse rates
gradually steepen aloft with the approach of the upper system, hail
will be a possibility with a few of the strongest cells. Meanwhile,
the fairly dry sub-cloud boundary layer may support evaporatively
driven gusts capable of producing local wind damage. The need for a
WW in the short term remains questionable, and will be based on
short-term evaluation of the evolution/coverage of stronger
convection. Additional convection expected to develop overnight may
require watch issuance, if earlier short-term convective trends do
not.

..Goss/Edwards.. 04/06/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON 29770226 30340245 31080292 32070298 33730312 34560238
35150190 34800047 33829996 31859987 30550107 29610157
29770226



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