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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0259

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, April 14, 2018 23:17:30
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    ACUS11 KWNS 142317
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 142317
    ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-150115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0259
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0617 PM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018

    Areas affected...Far Southeastern MS...Southern AL and the Far
    Western FL Panhandle

    Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

    Valid 142317Z - 150115Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

    SUMMARY...The threat for damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado
    or two will continue across portions of far southern MS and far
    southern AL with some extension possible into the western FL
    Panhandle later tonight.

    DISCUSSION...Heavy precipitation across western portions of the
    discussion area (far southeastern MS and adjacent southern AL) has
    moved little over the past hour as the northern portions of the
    convective line continues to accelerate eastward while the southern
    portion moves significantly slower. Given the inflection in the
    convective line and abundant precipitation, the development of a
    meso low appears likely to be ongoing near the far southern AL/MS
    border. Moisture convergence is also maximized in this region,
    further strengthening the expectation of meso low development.

    At the same time, the southern portion of the convective line is
    expected to begin accelerating eastward as a shortwave trough
    approaches from the west. Some of this acceleration appears to be
    beginning now. This should allow the line to remain co-located with
    its outflow, increasing updraft strength and the potential for
    damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two. Additionally,
    increasing low-level shear from both the meso low and larger scale strengthening of 2-3 km AGL winds will augment the severe threat. A
    watch will likely be needed to cover this lingering threat.

    ..Mosier/Guyer.. 04/14/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...LIX...

    LAT...LON 30998870 31668789 32058690 31328616 30298646 30118759
    30128834 30258902 30998870



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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, April 05, 2019 01:45:11
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 050045
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 050044
    LAZ000-TXZ000-050215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0259
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0744 PM CDT Thu Apr 04 2019

    Areas affected...Far Southeast TX...Western LA

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 37...

    Valid 050044Z - 050215Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 37
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Threat for hail and damaging wind gusts continues across
    far southeast TX and western LA.

    DISCUSSION...Updrafts have thus far struggled to maintain intensity,
    likely a result of only weak boundary-layer forcing for ascent,
    large-scale subsidence, and warm temperatures aloft. Even so, strong instability and effective vertical shear around 40 to 50 kt has
    fostered quick and robust updraft development and a few severe
    storms. Storms within the warm sector are expected to continue their
    weakening trend as nocturnal cooling sets in and convective
    inhibition increase. Continued development appears possible for the
    next few hours near the triple point as it gradually shifts
    southeastward. Updrafts in this region will occasionally be strong
    enough to produce severe hail and/or damaging wind gusts.

    ..Mosier.. 04/05/2019

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...

    LAT...LON 31159474 31939470 32129360 31949286 31029221 29619256
    29609410 31159474



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