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ACUS11 KWNS 290000
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282359
NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-290130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0929
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0659 PM CDT Thu Jun 28 2018

Areas affected...Eastern MT...Most of ND...Far Northwest SD

Concerning...Tornado Watch 234...235...

Valid 282359Z - 290130Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 234, 235 continues.

SUMMARY...Threat for very large hail, strong wind gusts, and
tornadoes continues from eastern MT across much of ND.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms developed quickly across eastern MT as
the forcing for ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough encountered the warm, moist, and uncapped airmass across the area.
Several of these storms have recently exhibited more eastward motion
(versus northeastward), suggesting well-developed and organized
updrafts exist. This more eastward motion will also take the storms
into airmass even more supportive of growth and persistence, with
surface dewpoints commonly in the 70s. Current mesoanalysis
estimates MLCAPE is over 4000 J/kg (locally over 5000 J/kg) across
southeast MT. Shear is also quite strong, with effective bulk shear
over 50 kt. All of these factors suggest a continued severe threat
with very large hail and strong wind gusts as the primary severe
hazards. A tornado or two is also possible.

Farther east, discrete supercell over Dunn County has recently shown
a strengthening trend, likely a result of entering the uncapped and
strongly unstable airmass across southwest ND. Southeasterly
low-level winds beneath increasing westerly flow aloft is supporting
strong deep vertical shear as well as enhanced low-level shear and
helicity. Given the strong instability and favorable shear, the
ongoing discrete storm will pose a risk for all severe hazards,
including very large hail and tornadoes.

..Mosier.. 06/28/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...

LAT...LON 47460806 48190560 48620187 48449927 47529886 46579906
45959976 45330220 45030538 45140798 47460806



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